A Failed "Transition": The Mounting Costs of the Iraq War
(Die anwachsenden Kosten des Irakkrieges)
By the Institute for Policy Studies and Foreign Policy In Focus
Eine leider bisher nur in Englisch vorliegende Analyse der Kosten des Irakkrieges wurde im September vom "Institute for Policy Studies and Foreign Policy In Focus" veröffentlicht. Dabei wird nicht nur von Geld geredet (ein Hinweis für weniger Geübte: "billion" heißt nicht Billionen, sondern Milliarden!), sondern auch von Todesopfern und Verletzten auf allen Seiten des Krieges. Auch gibt es Schätzungen der "sozialen" Folgekosten des Krieges. Die Studie ist dreigeteilt: Es werden die Kosten für die USA, für den Irak und für die übrige Welt insgesamt geschätzt.
Eine Auflistung der wesentlichen Zahlen kann als pdf-Datei heruntergeladen werden:
The Mounting Costs of the Iraq War
FPIF Policy Study, September 2004
A Failed "Transition": The Mounting Costs of the Iraq War
KEY FINDINGS
A Failed 'Transition' is the most comprehensive
accounting of the mounting costs of the Iraq war on
the United States, Iraq, and the world. Among its
major findings are stark figures about the
escalation of costs in these most recent three
months of "transition" to Iraqi rule, a period that
the Bush administration claimed would be
characterized by falling human and economic costs.
1. U.S. Military Casualties Have Been Highest
During the "Transition": U.S. military casualties
(wounded and killed) stand at a monthly average of
747 since the so-called "transition" to Iraqi rule
on June 28, 2004. This contrasts with a monthly
average of 482 U.S. military casualties during the
invasion (March 20-May 1, 2003) and a monthly
average of 415 during the occupation (May 2, 2003-
June 28, 2004).
2. Non-Iraqi Contractor Deaths Have Also Been
Highest During the "Transition": There has also
been a huge increase in the average monthly deaths
of U.S. and other non-Iraqi contractors since the
"transition." On average, 17.5 contractors have
died each month since the June 28 "transition,"
versus 7.6 contractor deaths per month during the
previous 14 months of occupation.
3. Estimated Strength of Iraqi Resistance
Skyrockets: Because the U.S. military occupation
remains in place, the "transition" has failed to
win Iraqi support or diminish Iraqi resistance to
the occupation. According to Pentagon estimates,
the number of Iraqi resistance fighters has
quadrupled between November of 2003 and early
September 2004, from 5,000 to 20,000. The Deputy
Commander of Coalition forces in Iraq, British
Major General Andrew Graham, indicated to Time
magazine in early September that he thinks the
20,000 estimate is too low; he estimates Iraqi
resistance strength at 40,000-50,000. This rise is
even starker when juxtaposed to Brookings
Institution estimates that an additional 24,000
Iraqi resistance fighters have been detained or
killed between May 2003 and August 2004.
4. U.S.- led Coalition Shrinks Further After
"Transition": The number of countries identified as
members of the Coalition backing the U.S.-led war
started with 30 on March 18, 2003, then grew in the
early months of the war. Since then, eight
countries have withdrawn their troops and Costa
Rica has demanded to be taken off the coalition
list. At the war's start, coalition countries
represented 19.1 percent of the world's population;
today, the remaining countries with foces in Iraq
represent only 13.6 percent of the world's
population.
Highlights of "A Failed 'Transition'" I. Costs to the
United States
A. HUMAN COSTS TO THE U.S. AND ALLIES
U.S. Military Deaths: Between the start of war
on March 19, 2003 and September 22, 2004, 1,175
coalition forces were killed, including 1,040
U.S. military. Of the total, 925 were killed
after President Bush declared the end of combat
operations on May 1, 2003. Over 7,413 U.S.
troops have been wounded since the war began,
6,953 (94 percent) since May 1, 2003.
Contractor Deaths: As of September 22, 2004,
there has been an estimated 154 civilian
contractors, missionaries, and civilian worker
deaths since May 1, 2004. Of these, 52 have
been identified as Americans.
Journalist Deaths: Forty-four international
media workers have been killed in Iraq as of
September 22, 2004, including 33 since
President Bush declared the end of combat
operations. Eight of the dead worked for U.S.
companies.
B. SECURITY COSTS
Terrorist Recruitment and Action: According to
the London-based International Institute for
Strategic Studies, al Qaeda's membership is now
at 18,000, with 1,000 active in Iraq. The State
Department's 2003 "Patterns of Global
Terrorism," documented 625 deaths and 3,646
injuries due to terrorist attacks in 2003. The
report acknowledged that "significant
incidents," increased from 60 percent of total
attacks in 2002 to 84 percent in 2003.
Low U.S. Credibility: Polls reveal that the war
has damaged the U.S. government's standing and
credibility in the world. Surveys in eight
European and Arab countries demonstrated broad
public agreement that the war has hurt, rather
than helped, the war on terrorism. At home, 52
percent of Americans polled by the Annenberg
Election Survey disapprove of Bush's handling
of Iraq.
Military Mistakes: A number of former military
officials have criticized the war, including
retired Marine General Anthony Zinni, who has
charged that by manufacturing a false rationale
for war, abandoning traditional allies,
propping up and trusting Iraqi exiles, and
failing to plan for post-war Iraq, the Bush
Administration made the United States less
secure.
Low Troop Morale and Lack of Equipment: A March
2004 army survey found 52 percent of soldiers
reporting low morale, and three-fourths
reporting they were poorly led by their
officers. Lack of equipment has been an ongoing
problem. The Army did not fully equip soldiers
with bullet-proof vests until June 2004,
forcing many families to purchase them out of
their own pockets.
Loss of First Responders: National Guard troops
make up almost one-third of the U.S. Army
troops now in Iraq. Their deployment puts a
particularly heavy burden on their home
communities because many are "first
responders," including police, firefighters,
and emergency medical personnel. For example,
44 percent of the country's police forces have
lost officers to Iraq. In some states, the
absence of so many Guard troops has raised
concerns about the ability to handle natural
disasters.
Use of Private Contractors: An estimated 20,000
private contractors are carrying out work in
Iraq traditionally done by the military,
despite the fact that they often lack
sufficient training and are not accountable to
the same guidelines and reviews as military
personnel.
C. ECONOMIC COSTS
The Bill So Far: Congress has approved of
$151.1 billion for Iraq. Congressional leaders
anticipate an additional supplemental
appropriation of $60 billion after the
election.
Long-term Impact on U.S. Economy: Economist
Doug Henwood has estimated that the war bill
will add up to an average of at least $3,415
for every U.S. household. Another economist,
James Galbraith of the University of Texas,
predicts that while war spending may boost the
economy initially, over the long term it is
likely to bring a decade of economic troubles,
including an expanded trade deficit and high
inflation.
Oil Prices: U.S. crude oil prices spiked at $48
per barrel on August 19, 2004, the highest
level since 1983, a development that most
analysts attribute at least in part to the
deteriorating situation in Iraq. According to a
mid-May CBS survey, 85 percent of Americans
said they had been affected measurably by
higher gas prices. According to one estimate,
if crude oil prices stay around $40 a barrel
for a year, U.S. gross domestic product will
decline by more than $50 billion.
Economic Impact on Military Families: Since the
beginning of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan,
364,000 reserve troops and National Guard
soldiers have been called for military service,
serving tours of duty that often last 20
months. Studies show that between 30 and 40
percent of reservists and National Guard
members earn a lower salary when they leave
civilian employment for military deployment.
Army Emergency Relief has reported that
requests from military families for food stamps
and subsidized meals increased "several hundred
percent" between 2002 and 2003.
D. SOCIAL COSTS
U.S. Budget and Social Programs: The Bush
administration's combination of massive
spending on the war and tax cuts for the
wealthy means less money for social spending.
The $151.1 billion expenditure for the war
through this year could have paid for: close to
23 million housing vouchers; health care for
over 27 million uninsured Americans; salaries
for nearly 3 million elementary school
teachers; 678,200 new fire engines; over 20
million Head Start slots for children; or
health care coverage for 82 million children. A
leaked memo from the White House to domestic
agencies outlines major cuts following the
election, including funding for education, Head
Start, home ownership, job training, medical
research and homeland security.
Social Costs to the Military: In order to meet
troop requirements in Iraq, the Army has
extended the tours of duty for soldiers. These
extensions have been particularly difficult for
reservists, many of whom never expected to face
such long separations from their jobs and
families. According to military policy,
reservists are not supposed to be on assignment
for more than 12 months every 5-6 years. To
date, the average tour of duty for all soldiers
in Iraq has been 320 days. A recent Army survey
revealed that more than half of soldiers said
they would not re-enlist.
Costs to Veteran Health Care: About 64 percent
of the more than 7,000 U.S. soldiers injured in
Iraq received wounds that prevented them from
returning to duty. One trend has been an
increase in amputees, the result of improved
body armor that protects vital organs but not
extremities. As in previous wars, many soldiers
are likely to have received ailments that will
not be detected for years to come. The Veterans
Administration healthcare system is not
prepared for the swelling number of claims. In
May, the House of Representatives approved
funding for FY 2005 that is $2.6 billion less
than needed, according to veterans' groups.
Mental Health Costs: The New England Journal of
Medicine reported in July 2004 that 1 in 6
soldiers returning from war in Iraq showed
signs of post-traumatic stress disorder, major
depression, or severe anxiety. Only 23 to 40
percent of respondents in the study who showed
signs of a mental disorder had sought mental
health care.
II. Costs to Iraq
A. HUMAN COSTS
Iraqi Deaths and Injuries: As of September 22,
2004, between 12,800 and 14,843 Iraqi civilians
have been killed as a result of the U.S.
invasion and ensuing occupation, while an
estimated 40,000 Iraqis have been injured.
During "major combat" operations, between 4,895
and 6,370 Iraqi soldiers and insurgents were
killed.
Effects of Depleted Uranium: The health impacts
of the use of depleted uranium weaponry in Iraq
are yet to be known. The Pentagon estimates
that U.S. and British forces used 1,100 to
2,200 tons of weaponry made from the toxic and
radioactive metal during the March 2003 bombing
campaign. Many scientists blame the far smaller
amount of DU weapons used in the Persian Gulf
War for illnesses among U.S. soldiers, as well
as a sevenfold increase in child birth defects
in Basra in southern Iraq.
B. SECURITY COSTS
Rise in Crime: Murder, rape, and kidnapping
have skyrocketed since March 2003, forcing
Iraqi children to stay home from school and
women to stay off the streets at night. Violent
deaths rose from an average of 14 per month in
2002 to 357 per month in 2003.
Psychological Impact: Living under occupation
without the most basic security has devastated
the Iraqi population. A poll conducted by the
Iraq Center for Research and Strategic Studies
in June 2004 found that 80 percent of Iraqis
believe that coalition forces should leave
either immediately or directly after the
election.
C. ECONOMIC COSTS
Unemployment: Iraqi joblessness doubled from 30
percent before the war to 60 percent in the
summer of 2003. While the Bush administration
now claims that unemployment has dropped, the
U.S. is only employing 120,000 Iraqis, of a
workforce of 7 million, in reconstruction
projects.
Corporate War Profiteering: Most of Iraq's
reconstruction has been contracted out to U.S.
companies, rather than experienced Iraqi firms.
Top contractor Halliburton is being
investigated for charging $160 million for
meals that were never served to troops and $61
million in cost overruns on fuel deliveries.
Halliburton employees also took $6 million in
kickbacks from subcontractors, while other
employees have reported extensive waste,
including the abandonment of $85,000 trucks
because they had flat tires.
Iraq's Oil Economy: Anti-occupation violence
has prevented Iraq from capitalizing on its oil
assets. There have been an estimated 118
attacks on Iraq's oil infrastructure since June
2003. By September 2004, oil production still
had not reached pre-war levels and major
attacks caused oil exports to plummet to a ten-
month low in August 2004.
D. SOCIAL COSTS
Health Infrastructure: After more than a decade
of crippling sanctions, Iraq's health
facilities were further damaged during the war
and post-invasion looting. Iraq's hospitals
continue to suffer from lack of supplies and an
overwhelming number of patients.
Education: UNICEF estimates that more than 200
schools were destroyed in the conflict and
thousands more were looted in the chaos
following the fall of Saddam Hussein. The State
Department reported on September 15th that
"Significant obstacles remain in maintaining
security for civilian/military reconstruction,
logistical support and distribution for
donations, equipment, textbooks and supplies."
Environment: The U.S-led attack damaged water
and sewage systems and the country's fragile
desert ecosystem. It also resulted in oil well
fires that spewed smoke across the country and
left unexploded ordnance that continues to
endanger the Iraqi people and environment.
Mines and unexploded ordnance cause an
estimated 20 casualties per month.
E. HUMAN RIGHTS COSTS
Even with Saddam Hussein overthrown, Iraqis
continue to face human rights violations from
occupying forces. In addition to the widely
publicized humiliation and torture of
prisoners, abuse has been widespread throughout
the post-9-11 military operations, with over
300 allegations of abuse in Afghanistan, Iraq
and Guantánamo. As of mid-August 2004, only 155
investigations into the existing 300
allegations had been completed.
F. SOVEREIGNTY COSTS
Despite the proclaimed "transfer of
sovereignty" to Iraq, the country continues to
be occupied by U.S. and coalition troops and
has severely limited political and economic
independence. The interim government does not
have the authority to reverse the nearly 100
orders by former CPA head Paul Bremer that,
among other things, allow for the privatization
of Iraq's state-owned enterprises and prohibit
preferences for domestic firms in
reconstruction.
III. Costs to the World
A. HUMAN COSTS
While Americans make up the vast majority of
military and contractor personnel in Iraq,
other U.S.-allied "coalition" troops have
suffered 135 war casualties in Iraq. In
addition, the focus on Iraq has diverted
international resources and attention away from
humanitarian crises such as in Sudan.
B. DISABLING INTERNATIONAL LAW
The unilateral U.S. decision to go to war in
Iraq violated the United Nations Charter,
setting a dangerous precedent for other
countries to seize any opportunity to respond
militarily to claimed threats, whether real or
contrived, that must be "pre-empted." The U.S.
military has also violated the Geneva
Convention, making it more likely that in the
future, other nations will ignore these
protections in their treatment of civilian
populations and detainees.
C. UNDERMINING THE UNITED NATIONS
At every turn, the Bush Administration has
attacked the legitimacy and credibility of the
UN, undermining the institution's capacity to
act in the future as the centerpiece of global
disarmament and conflict resolution. The
efforts of the Bush administration to gain UN
acceptance of an Iraqi government that was not
elected but rather installed by occupying
forces undermines the entire notion of national
sovereignty as the basis for the UN Charter. It
was on this basis that Secretary General Annan
referred specifically to the vantage point of
the UN Charter in his September 2004 finding
that the war was illegal.
D. ENFORCING COALITIONS
Faced with opposition in the UN Security
Council, the U.S. government attempted to
create the illusion of multilateral support for
the war by pressuring other governments to join
a so-called "Coalition of the Willing." This
not only circumvented UN authority, but also
undermined democracy in many coalition
countries, where public opposition to the war
was as high as 90 percent. As of the middle of
September, only 29 members of the "Coalition of
the Willing" had forces in Iraq, in addition to
the United States. These countries, combined
with United States, make up less than 14
percent of the world's population.
E. COSTS TO THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
The $151.1 billion spent by the U.S. government
on the war could have cut world hunger in half
and covered HIV/AIDS medicine, childhood
immunization and clean water and sanitation
needs of the developing world for more than two
years. As a factor in the oil price hike, the
war has created concerns of a return to the
"stagflation" of the 1970s. Already, the
world's major airlines are expecting an
increase in costs of $1 billion or more per
month.
F. UNDERMINING GLOBAL SECURITY AND DISARMAMENT
The U.S.-led war and occupation have galvanized
international terrorist organizations, placing
people not only in Iraq but around the world at
greater risk of attack. The State Department's
annual report on international terrorism
reported that in 2003 there was the highest
level of terror-related incidents deemed
"significant" than at any time since the U.S.
began issuing these figures.
G. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL COSTS
U.S.-fired depleted uranium weapons have
contributed to pollution of Iraq's land and
water, with inevitable spillover effects in
other countries. The heavily polluted Tigris
River, for example, flows through Iraq, Iran
and Kuwait.
H. HUMAN RIGHTS
The Justice Department memo assuring the White
House that torture was legal stands in stark
violation of the International Convention
Against Torture (of which the United States is
a signatory). This, combined with the widely
publicized mistreatment of Iraqi prisoners by
U.S. military and intelligence officials, gave
new license for torture and mistreatment by
governments around the world.
"Just the Numbers" factsheet feel free to photocopy and share (pdf document):
www.fpif.org/pdf/reports/IPStransition.pdf
(Auch auf unserer Website verfügbar: The Mounting Costs of the Iraq War
Source: http://www.fpif.org/papers/
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